Friday, July 31, 2009

Law of large numbers?

The law of large number states that as the number of observations drawn at random from a population with finite mean Mu increases, the mean of the observed values:





A) Gets larger


B) Gets smaller


C) tends to get closer and closer to the population mean Mu.


D) fluctuates steadily between one standard deviation above and one standard deviation below the mean.

Law of large numbers?
C)





Imagine flipping a coin.





If you only flip 2 times, it is very possible to get heads 100% of the time.





If you flip 5 times, it is reasonable to get heads 80% of the time.





If you flip 100 times, it is reasonable to get between 40-60% heads.





As you increase the number of times you flip (up to infinity), you will eventually get heads 50% of the time.
Reply:Real simple. Answer is C.





Think about flipping a coin. 50/50 chance of heads or tails. On one flip it will be 100% one way, and 0% the other. Flip 10 times, 100 times, 100000000 times. The more flips, the closer to 50/50 the overall Mu will be.


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